India Locks In More Russian and UAE Crude Even as Hormuz Traffic Bounces Back

Indian refiners didn’t wait for the Strait of Hormuz to fully reopen before making their move. They went out and bought more Russian and UAE crude than they had in months, even as shipping through the world’s most critical oil chokepoint started flowing normally again. The numbers, released by maritime intelligence firm Kpler, paint a picture of a country hedging hard against a crisis that hadn’t even fully passed yet.

Russian Barrels Keep Piling Up
India imported an average of 2.66 million barrels per day of crude oil from Russia in June, through June 19, compared to 1.91 million bpd in May, according to the Kpler figures. That jump alone reshuffled the supplier rankings, with the data cementing Moscow’s position as the country’s largest oil supplier. Discounts are doing the heavy lifting here. Russian barrels remain attractive due to discounts, and refiners have shown little hesitation about leaning into that pricing advantage while global rates stay choppy.

UAE Supplies Stay Near Record Territory
UAE shipments didn’t quite top May’s number, but they came close. Imports from the United Arab Emirates stood at 6,36,000 barrels per day in June, through June 19, marginally below the record 6,44,000 bpd imported in May. UAE supplies helped offset uncertainty surrounding shipments through the strategic waterway of the Strait of Hormuz, giving refiners a closer, faster alternative while Gulf-wide flows remained shaky.

Where Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, and the US Land
The rest of the supplier list shows a clear pecking order forming:

Saudi Arabia: 384,000 bpd, placing it third Business Standard
Venezuela: Venezuela emerged as India’s fourth-largest crude supplier with shipments of 2,09,000 bpd Business Standard
United States: Imports from the United States fell sharply to 91,000 bpd from 2,52,000 bpd in May Business Standard

That US collapse is the most dramatic single swing in the entire dataset — a 64% drop in barely a month.

Why This Happened Now
India’s third-largest energy importer status means it has almost no margin for error when a chokepoint like Hormuz gets disrupted. Supplies were disrupted after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, following US and Israeli attacks, choking a key energy artery that carries about 20 per cent of global oil consumption and serves as the main export corridor for Gulf producers, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. Relief came eventually. Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz began recovering late last week after the US and Iran agreed to a ceasefire. But by then, Indian refiners had already locked in their diversification strategy.

Kpler’s Take on What Comes Next
Sumit Ritolia, who heads modelling at Kpler, expects the recovery to play out unevenly across fuel types. A reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is expected to provide the quickest relief to India’s liquefied petroleum gas supplies, while crude oil and liquefied natural gas imports are likely to see a more gradual normalisation since the country has already built workarounds. Ritolia doesn’t expect Russian volumes to fade once things stabilize. He expects Russian supplies to remain a cornerstone of India’s import basket even after Hormuz normalises, given favourable economics and supply security considerations.

The Venezuela and Atlantic Basin Pivot
Russia and the UAE aren’t the only beneficiaries of India’s hedging instinct. Indian refiners have also increased purchases from the Atlantic Basin and Venezuela since March to offset tighter Gulf supplies, with Venezuelan crude imports estimated at 3,00,000-4,00,000 bpd in June. That said, the Venezuela bet comes with strings attached. Sanction risks and production constraints continue to cloud the long-term outlook for that supply line.

LPG Tells a Different Story
Crude wasn’t the only commodity caught in the crossfire. The biggest shift has occurred in LPG. The United States has emerged as a major supplier after disruptions curbed Gulf shipments, aided by a long-term supply agreement signed last year. That single fact underscores just how exposed India’s LPG supply chain was before refiners scrambled to find alternatives outside the Gulf.