The Background of the Indus Waters Treaty… Why is it a Loss for Pakistan?

Pakistan is at a complete loss as to what to do regarding the Indus Waters Treaty. After boastfully declaring that they were ready even for war over this issue, the neighboring country has recently vented its frustration against India. Pakistan indirectly warned India, stating that anyone who eyes Pakistan’s rightful share under the Indus Waters Treaty would have their hands chopped off. These controversial remarks were made by Pakistani Minister Musadik Malik.

“We have already announced that if anyone lays a hand on our water, we will chop off that hand. This is not just a statement; we have demonstrated it in practice twice over the last one and a half to two years. We have proven twice that we can protect you. However, has the world given upper riparian countries the right to stop the water of lower riparian countries?” he questioned.

A few days ago, Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif also made controversial remarks. He recently warned that India’s actions are posing a threat to their water supply, and if necessary, they are ready to go to war against India. Asif stated that any attempts to reduce or block the water flow coming to Pakistan would become a national security issue. He added that Pakistan’s economy and the livelihood of crores of people depend on the Indus River system. In this context, Asif warned that they would use all means to protect their water rights and would not hesitate to go as far as war if necessary.

The Decision Following the Pahalgam Terror Attack…

In fact, the Indus Waters Treaty was signed between India and Pakistan in 1960 through the mediation of the World Bank. The then Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and Pakistani President Ayub Khan signed the agreement. According to this, India has full rights over the Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej rivers, while the major share of the waters of the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers was allocated to Pakistan.

However, circumstances changed after 26 people were killed in a terror attack in Pahalgam in April 2025. Clarifying that “terror and talks cannot go together,” India ‘suspended’ the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty. India made it clear that there would be no discussions on water distribution until cross-border terrorism stops.

India’s decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty is pushing Pakistan into severe distress. The situation has become particularly alarming in the Sindh and Balochistan provinces. Water levels have dropped dangerously within the limits of the Sukkur Barrage, which provides irrigation water to lakhs of acres. The livelihoods of crores of people depend on this barrage, which is one of the largest irrigation systems in Pakistan.

The Indus River system is not just a water source for Pakistan, but the ‘lifeline’ of that country’s economy and food security:

• Agricultural Crisis: More than 90% of Pakistan’s crops and food production (wheat, rice, cotton) depend on the Indus Basin. If India stops the water, drought and starvation deaths are inevitable there.
• Blow to GDP: Agriculture accounts for a 25% share of Pakistan’s economy. If India restricts the water, the country’s GDP could drop by 1.5% to 2%.
• Power Darkness: About 60% to 79% of Pakistan’s hydropower generation depends on the Indus River. If projects like the ‘Tarbela Dam’ (4,888+ MW) grind to a halt, the entire country will plunge into darkness.